January 23, 2014
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It's always important, and always hard, to distinguish positive
economics (how things work) from normative economics (how things should
be). Indeed, with many of the macroeconomics issues I've written about,
it has been obvious that large numbers of economists can't bring
themselves to make that distinction; they dislike an activist government
on political grounds, and this leads them to make really bad arguments
about why fiscal stimulus can't work and how monetary stimulus will be
disastrous.
But I'd like to talk not about macroeconomics but
about money - specifically, about Bitcoin, the virtual currency. So far,
almost all of the Bitcoin discussion has centered on positive economics
- can this actually work? And I have to say that I'm still deeply
unconvinced.
To be successful, money must be both a medium of
exchange and a reasonably stable store of value. And it remains
completely unclear why Bitcoin should be a stable store of value. The
economist Brad DeLong explained it earlier this month in an online
article for the Washington Center for Equitable Growth:
"Underpinning
the value of gold is that if all else fails you can use it to make
pretty things," he wrote. "Underpinning the value of the dollar is a
combination of (a) the fact that you can use them to pay your taxes to
the U.S. government, and (b) that the Federal Reserve is a potential
dollar sink and has promised to buy them back and extinguish them if
their real value starts to sink at (much) more than 2 percent/year."
He continued:
"Placing
a ceiling on the value of gold is mining technology, and the prospect
that if its price gets out of whack for long on the upside a great deal
more of it will be created. Placing a ceiling on the value of the dollar
is the Federal Reserve's role as actual dollar source, and its
commitment not to allow deflation to happen. Placing a ceiling on the
value of Bitcoins is computer technology and the form of the hash
function ... until the limit of 21 million Bitcoins is reached. Placing a
floor on the value of Bitcoins is ... what, exactly?"
I
have had, and am continuing to have, a dialogue with smart
technologists who are very high on Bitcoin - but when I try to get them
to explain to me why Bitcoin is a reliable store of value, they always
seem to come back with explanations about how it's a terrific medium of
exchange. Even if I buy this (which I don't, entirely), it doesn't solve
my problem. And I haven't been able to get my correspondents to
recognize that these are different questions.
President Rand Paul
may not sound too catchy, but Rand Paul being the Republican nominee for
president in 2016 could be the best thing that's happened to Democrats
and our nation in a long time.
Political commentator Peter Beinart has
a new piece in The Atlantic,
where he writes that now that Chris Christie has been knocked out of
the number one spot in the Republican Party, Rand Paul is now the likely
front-runner for the Republican presidential nod in 2016.
Beinart
writes that, "If Chris Christie was ever the frontrunner for the 2016
Republican presidential nomination, he isn't anymore...So if Christie is
no longer the candidate to beat in the 2016 Republican race, who is?
Believe it or not, it's Rand Paul."
He goes on to
write that the 2016 election could turn out to be like the election of
1964, when the dark-horse, weird, fringe, ultra-conservative candidate,
Barry Goldwater, became the Republican Party's nominee.
As Beinart
puts it, "It's just possible that 2016 could be another 1964 or 1980,
years when the Republican establishment proved weak and pliable enough
to allow a candidate previously considered extreme to come in from the
cold."
Beinart says the reason for this, in addition to the fact
that Rand Paul has good polling numbers, is that there is an existing
infrastructure of Paul support within the Republican Party, thanks to
Ron Paul taking big chunks of support from Republicans in 2012.
Those people who were Ron Paul followers in 2012 are now Rand Paul supporters, and they're embedded in the Republican Party.
Basically, Rand Paul has a very good shot at becoming the Republican nominee for president in 2016.
So why is that such a good thing for Democrats and our nation?
He could force Democrats to move way to the left.
Rand
Paul hates things like Social Security and Medicare. He thinks both
programs should be handed over to Wall Street CEO's and health care
executives, so that they can be privatized and made profitable.
He hates long-term unemployment benefits and opposes a minimum wage altogether.
He has even said that companies should be able to discriminate based on race, gender or sexual orientation.
Economically,
he thinks everything should be privatized, with the only exceptions
being the military, police forces and the judicial system.
And he is totally opposed to a woman's right to choose to have an abortion.
But most people don't know that these are Paul's positions.
What people do know is that Paul is strongly opposed to the NSA spying on American citizens.
They know that he is incredibly skeptical of our nation's drone program, and that he's in favor of gay marriage.
And people also know that Paul is in favor of decriminalizing all drugs, not just marijuana.
When
you look at Rand Paul's position on just these issues, he appears to be
way to the left of much of the official Democratic Party.
If he
were to run in 2016, and secure the Republican presidential nomination,
it's very possible that not only would he pick up Conservative votes, he
could also pick up progressive votes as well based on his stance on
issues like domestic spying, marriage equality and drug
decriminalization.
So, if the Democratic nominee wanted to have
any chance at defeating Paul, whether that nominee was Hilary Clinton,
Elizabeth Warren or Andrew Cuomo, they would have to move way to left of
the current mainstream Democratic Party's positions.
If things
were to play out just like this, and if Paul did become the Republican
nominee in 2016, it's likely that the 2016 election could be the
election where things really start getting populist.
Can you imagine if Democrats had to become more progressive to take on a libertarian Republican candidate?
Creating protectionist trade policies and decriminalizing pot could become parts of the official Democratic platform.
Suddenly, pushing for things like healthcare for all and legalizing marijuana would seem mainstream.
Make no mistake about it.
Rand
Paul being on the Republican ticket for president in 2016 could be the
powerful force needed to move the entire Democratic Party, from
presidential nominees to state assembly nominees, to the left.
What a remarkable outcome that would be.
This article first appeared on TruthOut.
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