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Thursday, January 30, 2014

Why the GOP’s civil war is only going to get uglier


SALON





Why the GOP’s civil war is only going to get uglier

 

Again, they misunderstand Econ 101 -- and the ride they're being taken on by the Tea Party and religious right






 
Why the GOP's civil war is only going to get uglierAyn Rand, Rand Paul (Credit: Wikimedia/AP/Jose Luis Magana)
 
 
This article originally appeared on Alternet
 
AlterNet
When it comes to explaining complex political dynamics, the media tends to adopt simple narratives rather than sophisticated commentary. This has been particularly evident when examining coverage of the Republican Party’s ongoing civil war.


The battle for the heart and soul of the GOP is more than social conservatives parrying with establishment Republicans. It is a pantomime that has many actors performing on a number of stages, but with only one clown: libertarians.
Libertarians are a funny bunch. By funny I mean ignorant not only of basic economics but also the ride they’ve been taken on by the Christian Right and the neo-Confederates within the Republican Party.

Nullification is the common cause that drives this anti-establishment triumvirate. Nullification of the federal government is now the weapon of choice for theocrats, libertarians and white supremacists. Since 2010, state legislatures have put forward nearly 200 bills challenging federal laws its sponsors deem unconstitutional. Typically, laws the nullifiers believe challenge “religious liberty,” the Affordable Care Act and gun control.

Recently, Kansas signed into law the Second Amendment Protection Act, which prohibits the enforcement of federal laws regulating guns manufactured and used within the state. Missouri put forward a bill that would have allowed for the arrest of federal agents enforcing gun laws. Similar bills have been introduced in 37 other states.

Of course, the ACA has been a high-priority target for the nullification movement with more than 20 bills introduced in state legislatures to nullify the president’s healthcare law. The Hobby Lobby, with the backing of the right, is attempting to nullify the Affordable Care Act’s contraceptive mandate in the Supreme Court. A favorable ruling will mean privately owned businesses are free to discriminate against gays, women and anyone else on the basis of religious liberty.

A report published by Political Research Associates says, “The nullification movement’s ideology is rooted in reverence for states’ rights and a theocratic and neo-Confederate interpretation of U.S. history. And Ron Paul, who is often portrayed as a libertarian, is the engine behind the movement.”

Paul, who has been called the father of the Tea Party, has long been tied with reactionary neo-Confederate politics. The Southern Partisan, a blog site for neo-Confederates, endorsed Paul’s 2008 presidential campaign with the following: “Paul has given countless speeches in front of Confederate flags for Southern Heritage groups and has never faltered from his defense of Dixie.” In 2012, Paul declared secession to be a “deeply American principle.”

While libertarianism comes in many forms, its central tenet is that government should be confined to looking after the military, national security and the judicial system. David Boaz, who is the vice president of the Koch brothers-funded think-tank, the Cato Institute, defines libertarianism as “the view that each person has the right to live his life in any way he chooses so long as he respects the equal rights of others.”

In reality, libertarianism means corporations having more equal rights than people.

Libertarians are drawn to Ron Paul because he appeals to their anti-military and anti-drug war sensibilities, but they’ve been duped. “Libertarian elements of Paul’s political agenda derive primarily from his allegiance to states’ rights, which is often mistaken as support for civil liberties,” writes Rachel Tabachnick, a PRA research fellow and member of the Public Eye editorial board.

“Paul is far more transparent about his paleoconservative—rather than libertarian—agenda when he speaks to audiences made up of social conservatives…And he sponsored the ‘We the People Act,’ which proposed stripping the federal courts of jurisdiction in cases related to religion and privacy, freeing state legislatures to regulate sexual acts, birth control, and religious matters,” she added.

The South and the Christian Right is fixated on everything related to controlling race, sex, religious practice, abortion laws, and the repeal of every progressive law that has come out of the federal government. Unwittingly, Ron Paul libertarians have been swept up in this theocratic, Southern white power, nullification movement. This alliance threatens to rip the Republican Party apart, as well as the Union itself.

Ron Paul’s son, Rand Paul (R-KY), has now firmed as one of a small handful of favorites to secure the 2016 GOP presidential nomination given the scandals surrounding Chris Christie, and also for the fact the Senator from Kentucky will inherit his father’s vast nationwide political infrastructure. Moreover, while Rand Paul shares his father’s despise of federal programs like Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance, he has crossover appeal with libertarians on the left, who not only have trouble thinking, but also hear only the anti-drone, anti-NSA, and anti-foreign war messaging.

In a 2009 Gallup poll, 23 percent of Americans responded to questions about the role of government in a way that categorizes them as libertarian—up from 18 percent in 2000. If you pair that 23 percent with the 35 percent who identify themselves as evangelicals, and couple that number with the swathe of Americans who long for the South to rise again, you can see how difficult it is for any progressive attempt to deal intelligently with national problems, be they poverty, income inequality, recession, healthcare, gun control, or the national debt, given the nullification movement’s commitment to obstruction.
Libertarianism and the nullification movement merge seamlessly with the Christian Right, because the “sacralized ‘lost cause’ of the South is often undergirded by Christian Reconstructionism,” writes Tabachnick. Reconstructionism, or Dominionism, is an ideology that calls on Christians to take over the federal government and then make the laws of the nation “biblical.”

Chris Hedges, author of American Fascists, writes, “It seeks to reduce government to organizing little more than defense, internal security and the protection of property rights. It fuses with the Christian religion the iconography and language of American imperialism and nationalism, along with the cruelest aspects of corporate capitalism.”

Reconstructionism merges Christianity with laissez-faire capitalism to arrive at a vision of government that endorses biblical law at the local level, alongside a limited federal government. Essentially that makes it the perfect philosophy for wedding theocrats in an unholy marriage with libertarians and Old Dixie.
The fusing of evangelicals with the neo-Confederacy is illustrated in a textbook used today by Christian homeschooling and private school curricula. Titled America’s Providential History, it explains the Civil War, or what it calls the “War Between the States,” as follows:
“After the war an ungodly Republican element gained control of the Congress. They wanted to centralize power and shape the nation according to their philosophy. In order to do this, they had to remove the force of Calvinism in America, which was centered in the South at this time, and rid the South, which was opposed to centralization, of its political power. They used their post-war control of Congress to reconstruct the South, pass the Fourteenth Amendment, and in many ways accomplish their goals.”
Libertarians tend to have little regard for applying their philosophy in the context of U.S. history, whether Jim Crow laws, state-enforced slavery and sexism. Ron Paul represented this tendency when he argued that the Civil Rights Act “led to a massive violation of the rights of private property and contract, which are the bedrocks of free society.” Bam, right there—Paul concedes that in his mind, private ownership supersedes civil rights. Little wonder neo-Confederates have so enthusiastically embraced libertarians.

Ultimately, the Republican Party’s civil war will be long and protracted, especially given the vast sums of money involved in determining a winner. The Chamber of Commerce’s war chest and Karl Rove’s epic fundraising will only go so far in overcoming a triumvirate that not only has boots on the ground in the form of enthusiastic ballot box lever pullers, but also the financial backing of America’s most prominent libertarians: Charles and David Koch.


CJ Werleman is the author of Crucifying America, and God Hates You. Hate Him Back. You can follow him on Twitter:  @cjwerleman

Friday, January 24, 2014

A Rand Paul Presidential Campaign Would Teach Americans Just How Vicious and Anti-Social the Libertarian Agenda Is



  Tea Party and the Right  


 
 

Not such a cozy guy.


 


It's always important, and always hard, to distinguish positive economics (how things work) from normative economics (how things should be). Indeed, with many of the macroeconomics issues I've written about, it has been obvious that large numbers of economists can't bring themselves to make that distinction; they dislike an activist government on political grounds, and this leads them to make really bad arguments about why fiscal stimulus can't work and how monetary stimulus will be disastrous.

But I'd like to talk not about macroeconomics but about money - specifically, about Bitcoin, the virtual currency. So far, almost all of the Bitcoin discussion has centered on positive economics - can this actually work? And I have to say that I'm still deeply unconvinced.

To be successful, money must be both a medium of exchange and a reasonably stable store of value. And it remains completely unclear why Bitcoin should be a stable store of value. The economist Brad DeLong explained it earlier this month in an online article for the Washington Center for Equitable Growth:
"Underpinning the value of gold is that if all else fails you can use it to make pretty things," he wrote. "Underpinning the value of the dollar is a combination of (a) the fact that you can use them to pay your taxes to the U.S. government, and (b) that the Federal Reserve is a potential dollar sink and has promised to buy them back and extinguish them if their real value starts to sink at (much) more than 2 percent/year."
He continued:
"Placing a ceiling on the value of gold is mining technology, and the prospect that if its price gets out of whack for long on the upside a great deal more of it will be created. Placing a ceiling on the value of the dollar is the Federal Reserve's role as actual dollar source, and its commitment not to allow deflation to happen. Placing a ceiling on the value of Bitcoins is computer technology and the form of the hash function ... until the limit of 21 million Bitcoins is reached. Placing a floor on the value of Bitcoins is ... what, exactly?"
I have had, and am continuing to have, a dialogue with smart technologists who are very high on Bitcoin - but when I try to get them to explain to me why Bitcoin is a reliable store of value, they always seem to come back with explanations about how it's a terrific medium of exchange. Even if I buy this (which I don't, entirely), it doesn't solve my problem. And I haven't been able to get my correspondents to recognize that these are different questions.

President Rand Paul may not sound too catchy, but Rand Paul being the Republican nominee for president in 2016 could be the best thing that's happened to Democrats and our nation in a long time.

Political commentator Peter Beinart has a new piece in The Atlantic, where he writes that now that Chris Christie has been knocked out of the number one spot in the Republican Party, Rand Paul is now the likely front-runner for the Republican presidential nod in 2016.

Beinart writes that, "If Chris Christie was ever the frontrunner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, he isn't anymore...So if Christie is no longer the candidate to beat in the 2016 Republican race, who is? Believe it or not, it's Rand Paul."

He goes on to write that the 2016 election could turn out to be like the election of 1964, when the dark-horse, weird, fringe, ultra-conservative candidate, Barry Goldwater, became the Republican Party's nominee.

As Beinart puts it, "It's just possible that 2016 could be another 1964 or 1980, years when the Republican establishment proved weak and pliable enough to allow a candidate previously considered extreme to come in from the cold."
Beinart says the reason for this, in addition to the fact that Rand Paul has good polling numbers, is that there is an existing infrastructure of Paul support within the Republican Party, thanks to Ron Paul taking big chunks of support from Republicans in 2012.

Those people who were Ron Paul followers in 2012 are now Rand Paul supporters, and they're embedded in the Republican Party.

Basically, Rand Paul has a very good shot at becoming the Republican nominee for president in 2016.

So why is that such a good thing for Democrats and our nation?

He could force Democrats to move way to the left.

Rand Paul hates things like Social Security and Medicare. He thinks both programs should be handed over to Wall Street CEO's and health care executives, so that they can be privatized and made profitable.

He hates long-term unemployment benefits and opposes a minimum wage altogether.

He has even said that companies should be able to discriminate based on race, gender or sexual orientation.

Economically, he thinks everything should be privatized, with the only exceptions being the military, police forces and the judicial system.

And he is totally opposed to a woman's right to choose to have an abortion.
But most people don't know that these are Paul's positions.

What people do know is that Paul is strongly opposed to the NSA spying on American citizens.

They know that he is incredibly skeptical of our nation's drone program, and that he's in favor of gay marriage.

And people also know that Paul is in favor of decriminalizing all drugs, not just marijuana.

When you look at Rand Paul's position on just these issues, he appears to be way to the left of much of the official Democratic Party.

If he were to run in 2016, and secure the Republican presidential nomination, it's very possible that not only would he pick up Conservative votes, he could also pick up progressive votes as well based on his stance on issues like domestic spying, marriage equality and drug decriminalization.

So, if the Democratic nominee wanted to have any chance at defeating Paul, whether that nominee was Hilary Clinton, Elizabeth Warren or Andrew Cuomo, they would have to move way to left of the current mainstream Democratic Party's positions.

If things were to play out just like this, and if Paul did become the Republican nominee in 2016, it's likely that the 2016 election could be the election where things really start getting populist.

Can you imagine if Democrats had to become more progressive to take on a libertarian Republican candidate?

Creating protectionist trade policies and decriminalizing pot could become parts of the official Democratic platform.

Suddenly, pushing for things like healthcare for all and legalizing marijuana would seem mainstream.

Make no mistake about it.

Rand Paul being on the Republican ticket for president in 2016 could be the powerful force needed to move the entire Democratic Party, from presidential nominees to state assembly nominees, to the left.

What a remarkable outcome that would be.

This article first appeared on TruthOut.

Thom Hartmann is an author and nationally syndicated daily talk show host. His newest book is "The Crash of 2016: The Plot to Destroy America — and What We Can Do to Stop It."

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Pastor tells Fox News: Obama’s getting us ready to embrace the anti-Christ



Pastor tells Fox News: Obama’s getting us ready to embrace the anti-Christ

By Travis Gettys

Tuesday, January 21, 2014 9:33 EST

Robert Jeffress

Fox News gave a platform to a Texas megachurch pastor who predicts that President Barack Obama is paving the way for the anti-Christ.

Fundamentalist Christian pastor Robert Jeffress appeared Monday night on The O’Reilly Factor to discuss his new book, Perfect Ending, which suggests the president’s policies were conditioning Americans to rely on the government and make them vulnerable to the satanic political figure foretold in the Bible.

“What I’m saying in the book, Bill, is there’s going to be a future world dictator before Christ returns who’s going to usurp people’s personal feelings, uh, rights,” Jeffers told host Bill O’Reilly.

Jeffers, pastor of the 11,000-member First Baptist Church in Dallas, said the anti-Christ would wage war against Christians and change religion-based laws.

“He’s going to do it without any opposition, and my question was, how is he going to be able to pull that off?” Jeffers said. “My thesis is, people will have been conditioned long before the anti-Christ comes to accept governmental overreach, and that’s what you’re seeing with President Obama.”

He said the end times were predicted in the Old Testament Book of Daniel and the New Testament Book of Revelations.

“Even Jews look forward to it,” Jeffers told O’Reilly.

The pastor said he’s based his conclusions on the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, which has extended health care coverage to millions of Americans, and the mandate requiring health insurers and employers who offer health insurance to cover some contraception costs.

“President Obama is without apology the most pro-abortion president in history, but what’s even worse, Bill, is we are being conditioned to accept that government has the right to persecute people of faith,” Jeffers said.

He said that Obama had targeted Christians and other religious people for his support for same-sex marriage, which the pastor said was destroying family life.

“Whenever you counterfeit something, you cheapen the value of the real thing, and I believe one reason for the disintegration of the family and marriage is we’re counterfeiting it, and last year the U.S. had the lowest marriage rate in its history,” Jeffers said. “Whenever you say that marriage is whatever you want it to be — two men, two women, a man and a woman – people say, ‘Why bother to get married at all?’”

Despite his lengthy indictment, Jeffers pooh-poohed the notion that Obama could be the satanic figure predicted in scripture.

“I’m not saying President Obama is the anti-Christ — in fact, I’m sure he’s not — because the anti-Christ is going to have higher poll numbers, according to the Bible, at least in the beginning,” Jeffers said. “But I believe he is conditioning people to accept governmental overreach, which they will finally give into when this final dictator comes, whether that’s 10 years from now or 1,000 years from now.”

Watch this video clip posted online by TurnInNews:


Tuesday, January 21, 2014

The Pattern Is Clear — The GOP Will Bend Over Backwards to Make Life Better for the 1%, But Not for Workers




  Tea Party and the Right  

 
 

Consider the Republicans’ approach to the estate tax, the minimum wage and jobless benefits.


Photo Credit: Shutterstock.com/donskarpo
 


Are Republicans inconsistent when they sometimes support using offsets and indexing and sometimes don’t? Not at all. They’re actually very consistent. When capital comes asking for gifts Republicans act like Santa Claus. When labor is the supplicant they conduct themselves more like Scrooge.

Consider the Republicans’ different approach to the estate tax, the minimum wage and jobless benefits.

When George Bush came to office the federal government taxed the value of estates over $675,000. Congress immediately raised the exemption to $1 million and in 2009 to $3.5 million. In 2010 Congress boosted it again to $5 million and in 2012 indexed the exemption to inflation. This year an individual will pay taxes only for the value of an estate over $5.25 million. A couple will receive an exemption of $10.5 million.

In sum, over 13 years Congress increased the estate tax exemption almost 800 percent and then indexed it to inflation. During that time the cost of living rose by 32 percent.

From 1997 to 2007 Congress refused to raise the minimum wage a penny. Then in 2007 it reluctantly raised it by $2.10 over three years. Since 2009 Congress has again refused to revisit the issue. Today and for the foreseeable future any proposal to index the federal minimum wage is dead on arrival.
In sum, over 16 years full time workers earning the federal minimum wage have seen their income rise by 40 percent, to $15,000. During that time the cost of living rose by 45 percent.

Ten states do automatically increase the minimum wage to keep pace with inflation. But last year Congress all but erased the impact of those increases when it refused to extend the two percent payroll tax reduction. The increased dollars subtracted from workers paychecks almost completely offset the dollars added to paychecks from the indexing of the minimum.

Congress takes the same mean spirited and miserly approach to the long term unemployed. In 2009, as part of its stimulus package, Congress extended jobless benefits to as much as 99 weeks. In 2012 it slashed the maximum to 73 weeks and for all but a dozen of the highest unemployment states, to 63 weeks. This was done even though unemployment remained at the highest levels in a generation and about 43 percent of the nearly 13 million unemployed were out of work for more than six months, double the rate of any other economic downturn since the Great Depression.

The average unemployment benefit is $300 per week.

In 2014 Republicans insist they won’t support an extension of jobless benefits without comparable reductions in spending. GOP leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) insists, “There is no excuse to pass unemployment insurance legislation — without also trying to find the money to pay for it so we’re not adding to a completely unsustainable debt.”

Republicans do not apply the offset principle to deficits created by reducing taxes. “You do need to offset the cost of increased spending and that’s what Republicans object to”, asserts Senator Minority Whip Jon Kyl (R-AR). “But you should never have to offset cost of a deliberate decision to reduce tax rates on Americans.”

At the end of 2012 corporate tax breaks that cost the Treasury upwards of $50 billion a year expired. Congress is expected, as it has done many times in the past, to extend the tax breaks and to do so retroactively. No one is talking about the need for offsets.

But even here Republicans demonstrate their consistency. At the end of 2011 the payroll tax reduction expired. Republicans flatly refused to extend it through 2012 without offsetting the loss of revenue. After a protracted battle they reluctantly abandoned their principled effort. As Brian Beutler wrote in TPM the “development represents a dramatic reversal for GOP leaders, who nearly allowed the payroll tax cut to lapse in December in part because of their insistence that the package be financially offset.”

No principle is involved here unless the eagerness to engage in class warfare is a principle. Support for the working class must be offset because it increases the deficit but tax cuts for billionaires, which increase the deficit just as much if not more, do not. The minimum wage should be raised at most every decade and god forbid it should rise automatically with inflation but the estate tax exemption should be raised every year and indexed.

David Morris is co-founder of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance and directs its initiative on The Public Good. He is the author of "New City States" and four other non-fiction books. His essays on public policy are regularly published by On the Commons, AlterNet, Common Dreams and the Huffington Post.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Exposing the Koch Brothers’ 2014 Plan: Focus On 13 States and Campaign on Social Media


  Tea Party and the Right  


Koch-funded non-profits reveal broad political strategy through job ads.


Photo Credit: Image by Shutterstock


The libertarian industrialist brothers David and Charles Koch spent more on 2012 elections than previously believed—$400-plus million, new investigations have found. Buried in that reporting is an even more intriguing detail: where and how their political cartel will campaign in 2014.

If you look at the websites of the Koch-backed non-profits identified by the Center for Responsive Politics and mapped even more elaborately by the Washington Post, telling tidbits sketch out the frontline strategy of the Koch-backed wing of the GOP. Thirteen states are priorities, and social media will be used for its propagandizing.

The Center for Shared Services is a job placement agency for the dozen politicized non-profits funded by the Kochs. Besides the Washington beltway, they are looking for nuts-and-bolts campaign staff in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas and Virginia. They even have a Twitter page for hiring, at FreeMarketRecruiting.
 
The Koch groups, which railed against Obama and congressional Democrats in 2012, especially want to hire grassroots organizers and social media experts. One group, the Public Notice, describes itself as “an independent non-profit dedicated to providing facts and insight on the economy and how government policy affects Americans’ financial well-being.” It seeks a “social media engagement specialist,” who will “plan, implement, and optimize numerous paid advertising campaigns on diverse channels such as Facebook, Twitter, Pandora, YouTube, Google, OutBrain.”

This social media campaign position reflects a shift away from using traditional broadcast media for electioneering, which political consultants say will be the big trend in 2014.

“Campaigns will need… the ability to predict when a conversation on social media has the potential to become rapidly viral or, potentially, nuclear,” wrote Bryan Merica, in Campaign and Elections magazine. “Imagine a communications war room staffed by a college intern… A young team member will know when to raise the red flag and alert senior campaign staffers to a quick moving story or sentiment.”

The Kochs' cartel seems to be embracing this strategy. Voters and social media users in its 13 targeted states may soon start seeing messages from any number of little-known Koch-funded groups with anti-government messaging. These include:

 The 60 Plus Association. Founded in 1992, it tries to be the right-wing version of the American Association of Retired persons, or AARP. ThePost found that it spent $4.6 million on ads against Obama, Obamacare and House Democrats in 2012.

American Commitment. Run by a Fox News columnist, it calls for making Obamacare voluntary, opposes minimum wage increases, and is anti-regulatory, pro-fracking, anti-tax and pro-property rights. It urges people to sign a pro-ALEC petition, referring to the American Legislative Exchange Council, which drafts and distributes pro-corporate bills to state legislators to push in their home states. In 2012, it spent nearly $1.9 million on ads attacking Obama and Democrats and has online petition drives against Obamacare and in support of the Keystone XL pipeline.

American Future Fund. This Iowa-based nonprofit spent more than $25 million on ads against Obama and congressional Democrats in 2012, the Post said, saying that $63 million of its $68 million came from money transfers from others in the Koch network. It has attacked the Internal Revenue Service and Federal Election Commission for going after its apparent violations of federal non-profit tax and election laws.

Generation Opportunity. This group ran a national get-out-the-vote effort for the GOP in 2012 that emphasized high youth unemployment rates, the Post said. Its issues were opposing Internet taxes and privatizing student loans, its website said.

While these and better-known Koch-backed groups, such as Americans for Prosperity, are planning for campaigns in at least the 13 states mentioned on their websites and on social media, what the public may first see will be attacks on moderate Republicans. That’s because there is a growing split between candidates backed by the Chamber of Commerce and by the Tea Party—which has been bankrolled by the Kochs.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce president Tom Donahue last week said his organization, arguably the nation’s most powerful business lobby, would actively oppose Republican candidates who won't vote the way it wants.
“I think they’re well-intentioned,” he said, referring to Tea Party officeholders, “except when they get to Washington, they’re not going to do what we want them to do, so why should we help them get here?”

By next November, you can bet that hundreds of millions will be spent by the Koch cartel to try to take over the Republican Party in primary elections, and then to wrest control of both chambers in Congress. If you’re in a targeted state, the political propaganda will be everywhere—even on your Facebook page and Twitter feed.

Steven Rosenfeld covers democracy issues for AlterNet and is the author of "Count My Vote: A Citizen's Guide to Voting" (AlterNet Books, 2008).

Saturday, January 11, 2014

5 Reasons Chris Christie Might Be Lying (aside from moving lips)


   

Tea Party and the Right  


 

Applying the techniques of lie detection to Christie's press conference yields some very interesting results.

 
 
 
Photo Credit: AFP
 


“I am embarrassed and humiliated by the conduct of some of the people on my team,” New Jersey Governor Chris Christie said during his press conference on Jan. 9 regarding the George Washington Bridge scandal.

“I am who I am, but I am not a bully.” While he worked hard in the nearly two-hour press conference to dispel any rumors of his involvement, many have already noted that Christie’s speech was more remarkable for the questions it didn’t answer than for the ones it did.
Left looming is: How could a man like Christie not know that his deputy chief of staff ordered lane closures on the George Washington Bridge? And how does a former U.S. Attorney, with his eye on a 2016 presidential campaign, not ask follow-up questions when told the closures were a result of a traffic test?

How indeed?

Most people feel it’s relatively easy to spot a liar, and judging by the media coverage on this scandal, many people feel that Christie is lying, but without a smoking gun, i.e. damning emails or personal testimony from his staff or the Port Authority, it’s hard to prove.

But his press conference itself may offer some insights. In “Liespotting: Proven Techniques to Detect Deception,” author Pamela Meyer asserts that only when we step back from someone’s words to view the whole picture can we begin to see the combination of indicators that will help us successfully identify a liar. She writes:
After listening closely to the details of someone’s speech, take a mental step back to consider what the combination of his facial expressions, body language, and verbal clues says about his attitude toward being questioned. Attitude is a crucial indicator.
Is the subject interested in helping you solve a problem or answer a question? Is he forthright or evasive? How confidently does he speak? A deceptive person might be guarded and hesitant to firmly acknowledge or deny anything you suggest about his actions or behavior. A truthful person will cooperate from the start and will signal that he is on your side.
But what if that person is an expert at identifying liars? And what if that person knows how to look like he’s telling the truth? As a former lawyer, Christie would be a master at it. In his speech he went out of his way to make the listener feel he was just as surprised as anyone and that he was going to do everything in his power to get to the bottom of the lane closures. But closer examination of what he said and what he didn’t say offers a very different picture.

While liespotting isn’t an exact science, and there are always exceptions, knowing how to identify certain telltale behaviors can provide some very interesting clues. Below, five mistakes Christie made in his press conference that may be signs of less-than-truthful behavior.

1. Too much detail regarding unimportant issues. According to Meyer, a subject will often offer specific details that have nothing to do with the question of his guilt as a way of validating his claim of innocence. It’s as if the specificity will add credibility to what he’s about to tell you. However, when you listen closely, you’ll observe that the abundance of details does not lead to relevant information.

When explaining how he learned of the breach in his office regarding the bridge lane closures, Christie said that he finished his workout at 8:50 and received a call from his director of communication at 8:55. Then he said, “I found this out at 8:50 yesterday morning. By 9:00 this morning, Bridget Kelly was fired. By 7:00 yesterday evening, Bill Stepien was asked to leave my organization.”

This may sound credible, but it begs the follow-up question, where’s the inquiry? Why fire your deputy chief of staff without talking to her further to find out who else might have been involved and what her motive might have been. As a former attorney, Christie knows that establishing motive is critical to securing a conviction of guilt, and if she’s the linchpin, why isn’t he speaking to her to find the others involved? Instead, when asked why Kelly lied to him, he said, “I have not had any conversation with Bridget Kelly since the email came out. And so she was not given the opportunity to explain to me why she lied because it was so obvious that she had. And I’m, quite frankly, not interested in the explanation at the moment.”

Notably, Christie indicated nine separate times throughout the conference that he was interviewing his staff and would continue to interview them. He details conversations with people he said are not involved. But why spend so much time talking to innocent people? If you want to find the guilty, talk to those you know are guilty. At one point, he said,
And so now, having been proven wrong, of course we’ll work cooperatively with the investigations. And you know, I’m going through an examination, as I mentioned to you, right now. That’s what I’m doing. I’m going through an examination and talking to the individual people who work for me, not only to discover if there’s any other information we need find, but also to ask them: How did this happen? How did, you know, how did this, you know, occur to us?
Here again, he’s giving the appearance of being cooperative by offering details, but those details lead to no real information except to tell us how serious he is about interviewing. In fact, though the conference lasted almost two hours, Christie said very little.

2. Evading questions. During the question-and-answer period Christie stuck to his talking points: Apologize. Appear cooperative. Promise to do better next time. He also avoided answering this question from a reporter: “So, I’m just asking, what do you ask yourself about — they either thought this is what the boss wanted, or they, as a group, they were willing to go rogue and do this and then try to cover it up.” Christie’s response:
And what does it make me ask about me? It makes me ask about me what did I do wrong to have these folks think it was OK to lie to me? And there’s a lot of soul-searching that goes around with this. You know, when you’re a leader of an organization — and I’ve had this happen to me before, where I’ve had folks not tell me the truth about something, not since I’ve been governor but in previous leadership positions — you always wonder about what you could do differently. And believe me, John, I haven’t had a lot of sleep the last two nights, and I’ve been doing a lot of soul-searching. I’m sick over this. I’ve worked for the last 12 years in public life developing a reputation for honesty and directness and blunt talk, one that I think is well-deserved. But, you know, when something like this happens, it’s appropriate for you to question yourself, and certainly I am. And I am soul-searching on this… And so I don’t want to overreact to that in that way either, John. But if you’re asking me over the last 48 hours or last 36 hours I’ve done some soul-searching, you bet I have.
He used a lot of words to say little beyond, “I’m sorry.” It’s not an answer, it’s an accusation. He’s saying, “I’m contrite. Isn’t it enough? Can’t you see I’m really hurting?” We’re to feel sorry for him and even guilty for suspecting him.

It’s also important to note that he repeats the question in full twice — once as if to clarify and again as part of his answer. Meyer warns that that kind of repetition indicates someone is about to lie. It’s natural to repeat a question in part, to make sure you hear it, but beware when someone repeats your question in full as part of their answer. This could be a subject’s way of buying time while he considers what he’s going to say next.

3. Lack of genuine emotion. Christie is a force of nature. He is breathtakingly self-confident and passionate about what he believes in. He’s expressive with his hands, his face and his body. A Google image search reveals Christie using his hands in almost every speech, hugging people and laughing heartily. Christie is not a stuffed shirt. His baseline behavior is that of a warm, sincere, powerful leader, quick to anger, but also quick to love.

But in Thursday’s speech, Christie kept his arms on the podium, his face expressionless and his words measured, despite the fact that he kept repeating how heartbroken he was. “I don’t think I’ve gotten to the angry stage yet, but I’m sure I’ll get there,” he said, as if he knew it was strange not to appear angry.

The fact that this behavior is so out of character for him is significant. In “Liespotting,” Meyer advises, “…you’ll want to take into account the subject’s baseline speaking habits before rushing to assume he’s fabricating a lie.” In Thursday’s speech Christie’s body was frozen, his movements robotic, and he lacked all of his customary warmth and charm. While this is not a guarantee of guilt, in the context of the inherent problems with his defense, it’s disquieting.

4. Leaks. These can be the most damning of all. A leak is a facial expression or physical gesture that sneaks out without the liar’s knowledge. These telltale signs can be facial expressions or physical gestures that are out of sync. For example, a subject angry at an accusation slams his fist on the table, but his face betrays the slightest smile for just an instant. A leak could also be an errant phrase tacked on to the end of a statement that then changes its entire meaning.  “I don’t micromanage first,” Christie said at the end of an explanation regarding his management style:
I am — there’s this — there’s this, you know, kind of reputation out there of me being a micromanager. I’m not. I mean, I think if you talk to my staff, what they would tell you is that I delegate enormous authority to my staff and enormous authority to my Cabinet. And I tell them, come to me with the policy decisions that need to be made, with some high-level personnel decisions that need to be made. But I do not manage in that kind of micro way, first.
Later he assures the press corps that he will always tell them the truth, as he sees it.  It’s the “as I see it,” that weakens the phrase. But the fact that he feels the need to say it at all is somewhat suspect. According to Meyer, if anyone is telling you they are telling you the truth, that person probably is not.

5. Contradictions. Twice during the press conference Christie changed his story. At the start of his speech he clearly explained that four weeks ago he took his staff into his office and told them that if they had anything to do with the bridge lane closures they had one hour to tell either chief of staff Kevin O’Dowd or chief counsel Charlie McKenna. Later in the conference, aggressively leaning over the podium, Christie said that four weeks ago he took his staff into his office and told them that they should tell him, Mr. O’Dowd and Mr. McKenna right then and there if they were involved with the bridge debacle.

Then, when asked how he might respond to a subpoena, Christie quickly dismissed the question by saying, “I’m not going to speculate on that at this time.” A strange way to answer given how many times he previously claimed he would do everything to cooperate.

Once again, none of this proves Christie is lying. But if Meyer’s book is any guide, it’s at least time to ask him some more questions.
Amy Punt is a Los Angeles based writer of fiction and screenplays, and a graduate-level screenwriting instructor.